Savings Gluts and Financial Fragility (2024)

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Volume 34 Issue 3 March 2021
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Patrick Bolton

Columbia University and NBER

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Tano Santos

Columbia University and NBER

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Jose A Scheinkman

Columbia University, Princeton University, and NBER

Send correspondence to Jose A. Scheinkman, js3317@columbia.edu.

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The Review of Financial Studies, Volume 34, Issue 3, March 2021, Pages 1408–1444, https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhaa074

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03 July 2020

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Abstract

We propose an incentive-based theory of how a savings glut produces financial fragility. Originators must be incentivized to produce high-quality assets. Assets are distributed to informed intermediaries or uninformed investors. A savings glut reduces origination incentives by compressing spreads between the prices paid for high-quality assets by informed intermediaries and prices paid by uninformed investors for generic assets. The narrowing of spreads relaxes intermediaries’ borrowing constraints, resulting in higher leverage. This generates financial fragility: intermediaries are more likely to become insolvent if unforeseen losses arise. Our model offers a coherent narrative of the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis.

© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

This article is published and distributed under the terms of the Oxford University Press, Standard Journals Publication Model (https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model)

JEL

G01 - Financial Crises G15 - International Financial Markets G23 - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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Editor: Itay Goldstein

Itay Goldstein

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